Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 17, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 17, 2023 SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few damaging gusts and tornadoes will increase tonight into Sunday morning across the Florida Peninsula and Keys. ...01z Update... Eastern Gulf Basin short-wave trough is ejecting northeast toward the FL Peninsula this evening. Surface low associated with this short wave will approach the FL Gulf Coast after 06z, then advance off the Atlantic Coast near Jacksonville by sunrise. 00z soundings over the southeastern US have yet to destabilize materially, but weak buoyancy is noted at MFL where SBCAPE is on the order of 500 J/kg. However, strong shear is in place and a marked increase in the LLJ is expected later this evening with 850mb flow likely to exceed 60-80kt by the end of the period. Latest lightning data suggests the strongest/deepest convection is immediately ahead of the short wave/surface low, at least 100mi west of the Peninsula. With time, buoyancy should increase such that deeper updrafts/lightning will develop with convection over land. Severe probabilities remain unchanged from 20z, and damaging gusts and tornadoes remain possible, especially after midnight. ..Darrow.. 12/17/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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