Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 19, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 19, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement with the evolution of the upper low expected to be just off the southern CA coast early D4/Friday morning. General expectation for the system to become more progressive, tracking over southern CA/northern Baja and into AZ on D4/Friday, and across the southern High Plains and into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday. A moderately warm and moist air mass will likely be in place over the southern Plains, contributing to the potential for showers and thunderstorms as the system moves through. Shear will be strong enough to support organized convection, but whether buoyancy will be large enough to support deep, sustained updrafts remains in question. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of the first, with the current expectation taking this system through the Plains on D7/Monday. Guidance suggests colder air will accompany this system, with a strong cold front expected to push across the central and southern Plains on D7/Monday. Some thunderstorms are possible along this front over the southern Plains, although uncertainty regarding the quality of the low-level moisture preceding it limit predictability. Guidance is beginning to suggest this shortwave will continue within the southern stream after D7/Monday, intensifying as it moves across the Southeast during the middle of next week. This intensification, if realized, could lead to some severe potential over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic during the second half of next week. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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