Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 20, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 20, 2023 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest. The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone is forecast to move slowly southward off of the CA coast through the day. Downstream of this cyclone, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies. An expansive surface ridge will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS, which should generally preclude thunderstorm development east of the Rockies. Midlevel moistening in advance of the Southwest shortwave will support elevated convection and perhaps sporadic lightning flashes across parts of AZ/NM. Somewhat more vigorous convection and greater thunderstorm coverage will be possible across parts of CA, in association with the offshore low. ...California... Deep southerly flow to the east of the offshore low will maintain modest low/midlevel moisture across near-coastal areas of southern/central CA. While the low will remain offshore through the period, a band of convection may move onshore during the day and possibly persist into the evening, in association with gradual cooling aloft and favorably difluent upper-level flow. Inland destabilization will likely remain quite limited, but increasing vertical shear may support modestly organized convection at times. A couple strong storms will be possible as stronger offshore convection approaches the coast, but instability currently appears too weak to support an organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 12/20/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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