Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 20, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 20, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains consistent in forecasting a southern-stream shortwave trough over AZ D4/Saturday morning. This wave is then expected to continue eastward through the remainder of the Southwest through the day before then progressing more northeastward into the central Plains overnight. A moderately warm and moist air mass will likely be in place over the southern Plains, characterized by upper 50s dewpoints as far west as the TX Big Country and Concho Valley and as far north as central OK. Even with this moisture in place, heating will be limited by abundant clouds and buoyancy will remain modest. Even so, forcing for ascent will be strong and the modest buoyancy will still be more than sufficient for thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough to support organized convection, but whether the thermodynamic conditions will support deep, sustained updrafts remains in question. As such, severe storms will likely be isolated, with overall coverage too low to introduce any probabilities. In the wake of this lead wave, a series of shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate through the upper troughing expected to be in place over the Plains. Short wavelength between these waves will likely lead to complex evolution, but the general expectation is for upper troughing to persist across the Plains into early next week. An associated surface low is expected to evolve gradually eastward, with an attendant front pushing eastward across the southern/central Plains on D5/Sunday and the Southeast on D6/Monday. Some thunderstorms are possible along this front, although the buoyancy preceding it will likely be limited. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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