Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 22, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 22, 2023 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and strong/gusty winds appear possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... Large-scale upper troughing will encompass much of the western states on Saturday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central High Plans through the period. Large-scale ascent preceding this shortwave trough will encourage the development of a lee surface low across eastern CO through the day, with the low then ejecting eastward across KS Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward ahead of the surface low and a Pacific cold front advancing eastward across the southern High Plains. Widespread cloudiness and limited daytime heating should temper the degree of instability that can develop through Saturday afternoon across the southern High Plains. Even so, cooling mid-level temperatures and somewhat steepened lapse rates aloft ahead of the upper trough should aid in at least weak destabilization across parts of far eastern NM into west TX and the TX Panhandle by late Saturday afternoon. MLCAPE generally ranging from 500-750 J/kg should prove adequate in tandem with strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt to support organized updrafts. Convection that forms along or just ahead of the Pacific cold front may be initially discrete and pose a threat for isolated severe hail given the favorable shear. With time, upscale growth into one or more clusters appears probable through Saturday evening as thunderstorms spread east-northeastward across west TX and the TX Panhandle. Even though low-level lapse rates should remain modest with limited daytime heating, some threat for strong to locally severe wind gusts may still exist as this mode transition occurs. Somewhat greater low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, should be in place farther east into OK and north/central TX. One or more thunderstorm clusters should move across these areas Saturday night into early Sunday morning. While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates, weak boundary-layer instability, and some MLCIN should tend to limit the threat for surface-based thunderstorms. Still, forecast instability trends will be closely monitored for locations east of the current Marginal Risk. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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