Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 22, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 22, 2023 MD 2339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AZ AND FAR SOUTHEAST CA Mesoscale Discussion 2339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Areas affected...Southwest AZ and far southeast CA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222031Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail will be possible in the more robust storms this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A trio of convective swaths persist downstream of a slow-moving mid/upper low just offshore of the CA/Baja CA border. The intermediate of these three swaths should largely impact the lower portions of the CO/Gila Rivers over the next few hours near the international border. Here, surface dew points from 54-58 F are common, with progressively lower values farther north along the CO River. Surface temperatures have largely struggled to warm beyond the 50s east of southeast CA owing to the pervasive cloudiness, but have popped into the low to mid 60s where cloud breaks have occurred. Still, MLCAPE has struggled to exceed 500 J/kg. The gradual eastward progression of the offshore low should yield slightly cooler mid-level temperatures into early evening, fostering a bit greater instability aloft. Although low-level shear is weak, VWP data from YUX highlights favorable speed shear between 3-6 km. This will conditionally support mid-level updraft rotation, especially in any cells that can remain semi-discrete. This potential alignment with the modest mid-level instability/buoyancy should support occasional hail growth with magnitudes likely peaking from 0.75-1.25 inch. ..Grams/Hart.. 12/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... LAT...LON 32541495 32761532 33061534 33441513 33601466 33471355 32981273 32651218 32201226 31831267 32541495 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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