Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 22, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 22, 2023 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2023/ ...Southwest US... Morning water vapor loop shows a compact upper-low off the coast to the southwest of San Diego, CA. A 70+ knot mid-level jet max is rotating around the base of the low, and will overspread northwest Mexico and into southern AZ tonight. Widespread clouds and scattered precipitation will limit heating/destabilization in most parts of AZ today. However, visible imagery shows broken cloud cover over southern CA just ahead of the upper low. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may result in sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts this afternoon. CAM guidance suggests the main area of concern is along and east of the Colorado River valley. A few storms may produce hail and gusty wind in this region this afternoon. Other strong storms may form in the low-level warm-advection zone and beneath the strong winds aloft across southeast AZ after dark. This area will see very little daytime heating or destabilization, but stronger vertical shear profiles and sufficient CAPE could encourage an organized storm or two capable of gusty winds. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.