SPC Dec 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A large-scale mid- to upper-level trough will move east from the
Great Basin/Desert Southwest into the central and southern Rockies
and adjacent High Plains during the period.  A lead mid-level speed
max will move through the base of the larger-scale trough and
overspread the southern High Plains during the afternoon/early
evening.  In the low levels, a developing cyclone over the central
High Plains will aid in advecting moisture northward on southerly
flow across the southern High Plains.  Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across eastern NM and adjacent TX
counties during the morning.  Considerable cloud cover will act to
partially inhibit heating and low-level lapse rates --especially
with north extent-- will be limited as a result.  Despite weak
instability and model-derived MUCAPE 250-1000 J/kg, cool 500 mb
temperatures (-16 to -18 deg C) may foster an environment with a few
vigorous updrafts capable of a marginally severe hail risk with
activity that develops during the afternoon.  A mix of cells and
bands of storms will likely transition to an extensive, broken
squall line by the evening as it moves from the Caprock east into
southwest OK and western north TX during the overnight.  A tornado
cannot be ruled out across parts of west TX during the afternoon,
but this risk will likely be limited by the lack of stronger
low-level shear and buoyancy.  The aforementioned squall line will
ingest increasingly elevated parcels with east extent across OK and
western north TX and probably hinder the propensity for localized
severe gusts with the convective line overnight.

..Smith/Bentley.. 12/23/2023

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