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SPC Dec 23, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts
east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly
flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving
across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level
moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure
over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest
while a trailing cold front shifts east across the Mid/Lower MS
Valley, extending from near Lake Michigan to the central Gulf Coast
vicinity by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the
front will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture as far north as
the TN/OH Valley vicinity. Dewpoints in the 60s F will reside
further south across much of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast.
However, widespread cloudiness, ongoing precipitation, and poor
lapse rates will limit destabilization, precluding severe
thunderstorm potential. Building surface high pressure in the wake
of the cold front from the Rockies into the Plains will result in
mostly dry and stable conditions.

..Leitman.. 12/23/2023

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