SPC Dec 23, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern
High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a
50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the
southern High Plains.  Relatively strong southerly low-level winds
across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface
dewpoints across the region.  Widespread clouds are currently
suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks
across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow
clearing building eastward through the day.  This should lead to a
narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the
TX/NM border.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in
this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. 
Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing
to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates.  Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early
evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat.
 The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to
be roughly from 21-03z.

Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also
occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into
west-central TX.  Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats
with these storms.

..Hart/Grams.. 12/23/2023

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