SPC Dec 23, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move
east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South
regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will
move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest
deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will
also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into
eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse.

...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of
the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm
advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity
should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of
the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear
of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization.
Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly
suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be
noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and
shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near
the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined
to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level
rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the
Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could
be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a
stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep
the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early
precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon,
confidence is too low for severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 12/23/2023

Read more

View the full article