SPC MD 2340

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2340 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 2340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

Areas affected...Far east-central NM into the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 232014Z - 232215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A short, low-topped line segment in east-central New
Mexico should expand in coverage as it progresses along the northern
periphery of the surface-based instability plume. A brief, weak
tornado and sporadic wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible.
Severe thunderstorm watch issuance in this region is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A narrow short-line, low-topped segment around 110 km
in length as of 20Z should increase in areal extent as it impinges
on the northern periphery of the weak buoyancy plume characterized
by 500-1000 J/kg from the TX South Plains to the Pecos Valley.
Immediately ahead of this line, surface dew points remain 5-8 F
lower across the remainder of east-central NM before increasing into
northwest TX. However, surface temperatures have struggled to budge
beyond the mid to upper 50s across northwest TX amid downstream
rain/clouds within the low-level warm conveyor. Despite this
instability profile, VWP data from FDX indicates low-level backing
immediately ahead of the line, resulting in an enlarging low-level
hodograph. Given the otherwise favorable deep-layer southwesterly
shear profile, attempts at mesovortex formation should occur capable
of producing sporadic strong gusts and a brief tornado.

..Grams/Hart.. 12/23/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34820388 35420300 35810195 35940135 35890087 35590040
            35220028 34790041 34490062 34270106 34130174 34090277
            33940370 34820388 

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