Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 23, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 23, 2023 MD 2341 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NM AND WEST TX Mesoscale Discussion 2341 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NM and west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232032Z - 232300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for hail and strong to severe winds may increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop and move eastward. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Some clearing of low clouds has recently been noted across parts of west TX and southeastern NM as a shortwave trough pivots eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico. As of 2030Z, surface temperatures have generally warmed into 60s where this clearing has occurred. Modest low-level moisture continues to stream northward/westward ahead of a cold front across the southern High Plains, with low to mid 50s surface dewpoints prevalent. Cooling mid-level temperatures acting in concert with the modest daytime heating/moistening of the boundary layer will support around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level southwesterly flow of 50-60 kt associated with the upper trough will foster strengthening deep-layer shear through the afternoon and evening across eastern NM into west TX. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity along a weak surface lee trough and the mountains of west TX over the next couple of hours. Initially more discrete/supercellular development should pose some threat for severe hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) given the favorable deep-layer shear and cold temperatures aloft. Later this afternoon and evening, upscale growth into small clusters and more linear structures is anticipated. As this mode transition occurs, strong to locally severe wind gusts around 55-65 mph appear possible where sufficient boundary-layer instability exists to support surface-based thunderstorms. Although the muted daytime heating and thermodynamic environment cast some uncertainty on the overall magnitude and coverage of the severe hail/wind threat, observational trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance in the next couple of hours. ..Gleason/Hart.. 12/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31290471 32290430 33100353 33880259 33940177 33740143 33360123 32890117 31170132 29850198 29640263 29150284 28890313 29240416 29780470 30400484 31290471 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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