SPC Dec 24, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Southeast...
While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief
tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from
the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday.

A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the
Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening
mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone
will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a
northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near
the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with
convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The
trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the
warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL
Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. 

Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor
should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread
cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low
to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during
the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm
conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the
departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by
substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely
scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs
within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be
negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability.

..Grams.. 12/24/2023

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