SPC Dec 24, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts
of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak
cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave
impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting
northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already
established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it
is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush
the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident
with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across
the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest
Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf,
this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging
on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States.

..Grams.. 12/24/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/

...East TX/LA...
A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern
Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough,
from TX into AL and the FL panhandle.  Surface trajectories will
limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making
surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely.

A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to
coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to
remain offshore.

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