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SPC Dec 25, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A localized severe thunderstorm risk is possible over parts of the
central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning.

...Synopsis...
Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough
pivoting northeast across the southern Great Plains and northwest
Gulf Coast.  An extensive rain shield is located immediately ahead
of the trough over the central Gulf Coast/lower MS Valley.  Although
the primary surface low is forecast to develop from northeast OK
into the lower MO Valley tonight, a secondary area of low pressure
is forecast to develop from southeast LA into MS/AL during the
overnight on the northern periphery of the more appreciably
modified-Gulf airmass.  It remains possible storm development will
occur this evening over southeast LA and move downstream into parts
of southern MS/AL.  Although the incipient severe risk is
conditional upon robust storm development (substantial airmass
modification will need to occur based on the 00z Slidell, LA 00z
raob; 0 J/kg MUCAPE), will continue with the low probability
highlight for a brief tornado/localized severe gust late this
evening into the overnight.  

Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the East and
areas from the High Plains westward to the West Coast.

..Smith.. 12/25/2023

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