SPC MD 2344

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2344 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST

Mesoscale Discussion 2344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250551Z - 250745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with
the most robust convection early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Negative-tilt upper trough is advancing northeast
across the lower MS Delta region this evening. An extensive region
of convection continues ahead of this feature extending from the
northern Gulf Basin, northwest across southeast MS/southern AL.
Boundary-layer air mass has been slow to modify inland, but surface
dew points have crept into the lower 60s along the immediate coast
with a 66F dew point now observed at Gulf Shores. Latest radar data
suggests a few updrafts, embedded within this larger corridor of
convection, are exhibiting some rotation, albeit mostly weak. These
circulations may be enhanced somewhat due to an approaching MCV-like
feature located about 50 mi south of MOB. Forecast soundings suggest
near-surface based convection is likely with 64F dew points,
although instability will remain poor. Even so, some risk for a
brief tornado or gusty winds may be noted with the strongest
convection as it moves inland.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 12/25/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   29908824 31148877 31328772 30198676 29738736 29908824 

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