SPC Dec 25, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become
vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning.  A belt of strong
cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent
trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South.  An embedded
mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this
morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley
by the mid afternoon.  In the low levels, a surface low over MO will
develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold
front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. 
Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend
from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s
surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. 
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an
extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower
OH Valley during the day.  Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak
low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective
vigor.  Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is
forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead
mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the
region.  Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models
vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and
subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells.

..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023

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