Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 25, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 25, 2023 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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