Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 25, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 25, 2023 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern CO. The track of the 500-mb low should follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to near BIE by 12Z tomorrow. A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the lower Ohio Valley by 00Z. By then, the closed heights around the cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and WY to the Mid-South. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB. A cold front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to southwestern Gulf. A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through the day. The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the western FL Peninsula by 12Z. ...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys... A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air. Isolated cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle. However, as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear, manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the previous period. Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity, initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential. While nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an outlook area. Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above the surface weakens and surface winds veer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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