SPC Dec 25, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will be dominated
by a vast cyclone, accompanying a low that is evident in moisture-
channel imagery over eastern CO.  The track of the 500-mb low should
follow a cyclonically curving path across KS through tonight, to
near BIE by 12Z tomorrow.  A pronounced, negatively tilted shortwave
trough -- initially located from southeastern KS to near MOB -- will
eject northeastward today and weaken considerably, reaching the
lower Ohio Valley by 00Z.  By then, the closed heights around the
cyclone should extend from western Lake Superior to far west TX, and
WY to the Mid-South. 

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary low near JEF, with
occluded front southeastward to a triple point near MOB.  A cold
front was drawn from there southwestward across the north-central to
southwestern Gulf.  A warm/marine front extended from the MOB/PNS
area southeastward across the northeastern and extreme east-central
Gulf near the Dry Tortugas, and should move slowly eastward through
the day.  The occluded/cold front will move slowly eastward across
the southeastern CONUS and north-central/northeastern Gulf through
the period, reaching eastern parts of TN/KY, central GA, and the
western FL Peninsula by 12Z.

...Portions of the northern Gulf Coast to FL Keys...
A band of prefrontal convection, associated with several earlier
supercells from near the AL coastline southward to the Gulf, mostly
has moved inland and atop more-stable boundary-layer air.  Isolated
cells with at least weak storm-scale rotation still may form over
the Gulf and cross the coast of the western FL Panhandle.  However,
as the shortwave trough pulls away during the next few hours, the
weakening of the LLJ and resultant decrease in low-level shear,
manifest with shrinking of hodographs, should render the severe risk
too low and conditional to carry over an outlook area from the
previous period.  

Farther southeast across the lower/middle FL Keys and vicinity,
initially somewhat enlarged hodographs may be maintained for a few
more hours, during a period of isolated convective potential.  While
nonzero, severe threat appears too isolated/conditional for an
outlook area.  Low-level shear should diminish this afternoon into
evening as convective potential increases, but also, as flow above
the surface weakens and surface winds veer.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 12/25/2023

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