Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 26, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 26, 2023 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A slowly progressive pattern will persist in mid/upper levels, dominated over the CONUS by a large synoptic cyclone now centered over the eastern KS/NE border region. Through 12Z tomorrow, the 500-mb low is forecast to loop cycloidally along a net eastward track to northern MO, while a series of shortwave troughs and vorticity maxima orbit the gyre. The already-occluded surface low -- analyzed at 11Z just east of HSI, will become increasingly stacked under the mid/upper center. The related occluded/cold front was analyzed from the low across southeastern SD, southern MN, southern Lake Michigan, central/eastern IN, eastern parts of KY/TN, western GA, and the eastern Gulf. Gradual frontolysis is expected with this boundary as it moves slowly eastward toward the southern Atlantic Coast and Tidewater region. The southern part will cross FL today, moving offshore from FL by the 00-03Z time frame. A broad, prefrontal conveyor of low-level warm advection and moisture transport will continue. Through tonight, the bulk of thunderstorm coverage, and the strongest activity, should be over Atlantic waters, where sea-air fluxes will support greatest inflow- layer theta-e. However, weak buoyancy may deepen enough to support sporadic lightning in convective clusters within the broader precip shield over land. Lack of greater low-level instability and shear should preclude an organized severe threat. ..Edwards.. 12/26/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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