Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 28, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 28, 2023 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Thu Dec 28 2023 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A large, long-lived, nearly stacked, mid/upper-level low is evident in moisture-channel imagery over southern IL, with expansive cyclonic flow still apparent from the central/southern Rockies to the central/southern Appalachians, and the Great Lakes to the Gulf. The 500-mb low should wobble erratically through the period while taking a net eastward path up the lower Ohio Valley region. Just outside the southern rim of the gyre's closed isohypses, a couple southern-stream shortwave troughs are apparent over the central and southeastern Gulf. In response, and along a surface boundary that long has moved offshore from the Atlantic Coast, a frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z over the western Straits of Florida, with a warm front extending eastward, south of the Keys and across the Bahamas. The low and front should remain just south of the Keys into early afternoon, as the low ripples eastward to east-northeastward toward the area between Bimini and Andros Island. A small complex of thunderstorms has been apparent for a few hours near the low, moving eastward to the south of the Dry Tortugas and Marquesas Keys. The expanding northern fringes of this activity north of the low -- and/or additional convection developing in the warm-advection regime farther downshear and north of the Straits boundary -- will pose some lightning potential across the Keys and southernmost parts of the peninsula through midday. Around 100-300 J/kg elevated MUCAPE, occasionally extending into icing layers suitable for lightning, should be present north of the boundary, before the leading shortwave trough passes. ..Edwards/Dean.. 12/28/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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