Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 31, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 31, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A southern-stream shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move quickly eastward over the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Wednesday into Day 5/Thursday, while eventually merging with another upper trough over the eastern states. A weak surface low should track across the northern Gulf of Mexico in this time frame. With greater low-level moisture forecast to remain confined along/south of a front draped off the Gulf Coast, severe potential over land appears low. Another upper trough/low should advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains and eventually Southeast late this week and next weekend. A large area of surface high pressure and a cold front intrusion deep into the Gulf of Mexico will likely slow the northward return of appreciable low-level moisture in this time frame. Current indications are that the greater low-level moisture should once again generally remain offshore and limit the severe potential over land. But, trends with this system will be closely monitored, as it appears stronger/more amplified than the upper trough described above. Medium-range guidance suggests that yet another upper trough may amplify over the western CONUS next weekend and move towards the southern High Plains towards the end of the forecast period (Day 8/Sunday). There may be a better chance for low-level moisture to advance inland across parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley with this system. Still, any severe potential will probably be delayed until after next weekend. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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