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SPC Jan 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible
late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest
Oklahoma.

...01z update...
An intensifying upper trough over AZ is progged to continue
amplifying as it makes its way over the southern Rockies this
evening and into late tonight. A 90-100 kt 500 mb jet will emerge
over the southern Plains around 06z, helping to rapidly deepen a
surface low over northeast NM and the northwestern TX/OK Panhandles.
Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the surface low will aid in
developing low-topped thunderstorms across West TX and into parts of
far southwest OK between 8-12z. Likely elevated above the surface
stable layer, and with limited buoyancy owing to poor boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 30-40s F, storms are not expected to be overly
intense. However, very strong low and mid-level wind fields ahead of
the trough/low my support the risk for occasional gusty/damaging
winds with the line of storms. Will maintain the MRGL risk across
west-central TX with a slight northward nudge into southwest OK for
the latest CAM guidance.

..Lyons/Grams.. 01/08/2024

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