Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 9 Administrators Share Posted January 9 MD 0031 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA Mesoscale Discussion 0031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the northern and central FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091742Z - 091945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move quickly eastward this afternoon, posing a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...As of 1740Z, convection extends in a nearly continuous line from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into north FL and southern/eastern GA ahead of a cold front. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a powerful mid/upper-level cyclone will continue to support updraft intensity and organization with this activity as it approaches the FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours. A very moist low-level airmass is already in place over much of the northern/central FL Peninsula, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 60s. Filtered diurnal heating with some cloud breaks has allowed for modest boundary-layer destabilization so far, even with poor lapse rates/residual capping noted in the 850-700 mb layer from various RAP/NAM forecast soundings. While FL remains on the southern extent of an enhanced low-level jet, around 50-60 kt of south-southwesterly flow near/above 1 km has been estimated from the KTBW and KMLB radars. Corresponding 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will be more than adequate to foster low-level rotation and some tornado threat with circulations embedded within the line. Greater potential for severe/damaging winds is evident given the mainly linear mode expected and strength of the low-level flow. With the ongoing fast eastward movement of the line, watch issuance will likely be needed for parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula this afternoon. ..Gleason/Hart.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29478272 29198122 28738090 27728110 26778218 27538281 28118286 28718275 29148303 29478272 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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