Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 10 Administrators Share Posted January 10 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, where storms may increasingly pose a risk for severe hail, wind and tornadoes prior to daybreak Friday. ...Synopsis... To the east of persistent amplified mid/upper ridging within the split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, one notable short wave impulse of northern Canadian Arctic origins is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Rockies and Prairies during this period. Models generally indicate that it will at least begin to progress across the international border into the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies by late Thursday night, but there is sizable spread still evident concerning this evolution. This in turn appears to impact the model depiction of a significant downstream short wave impulse (of northern mid-latitude Pacific origins), particularly by late Thursday night, after digging southeast of the Great Basin toward the Southwestern international border area. Guidance, still generally indicates that it will begin pivoting to a negative tilt and accelerate through the southern Great Plains, but latest model runs, including the NAM and the Rapid Refresh, suggest that the impulse may bottom out and take a more northward track than what the GEFS and ECENS output have been indicating that past several days. Regardless, strong mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to contribute to a deepening surface troughing across the southern Great Plains through the Ozark Plateau and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, with at least one developing area of low pressure across the Ark-La-Texas into central Arkansas vicinity probable. It appears that this will be accompanied by a substantive inland influx of moisture, off a still modifying boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, contributing to increasing near-surface or surface-based destabilization, aided by steepening lapse rates associated with cooling aloft. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... Based on the 03Z Rapid Refresh and 00Z NAM forecast soundings, and accounting for the increasing model spread, severe probabilities are being maintained at slight risk categorization, but have been extended north-northwestward through portions of the southeastern Great Plains and toward the Ozark Plateau, where initial thunderstorm development appears possible by late Thursday evening. Otherwise, it still appears that mid/upper forcing for ascent may support thunderstorm initiation as far south and west as the Interstate 35 and Edwards Plateau vicinity of Texas. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear (including in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb) across the lower Mississippi Valley by 12Z Friday, rapidly intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing severe weather potential are possible by late Thursday night, if not earlier. In association with the mid-level cooling, an organizing squall line may evolve across parts of western Arkansas and eastern Texas into Louisiana, with an additional area of downstream warm advection driven supercell development possible closer to the Mississippi River, by the end of the period. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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