SPC Jan 10, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface
cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great
Lakes early this coming weekend.  However, there may be some further
intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to
turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay
vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights
across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through
the middle to latter portion of next week.  At the same time, it
appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude
westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward
toward the Pacific coast.

Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation
emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual
cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some
amplification possible.  This probably will be preceded by an
intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern
Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave
development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the
central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much
more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of
the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the
GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable.  However, its depiction suggests
that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk
across the Florida Peninsula on Monday.  For at least now, though,
this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent
probabilities.

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