Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 10 Administrators Share Posted January 10 SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce high winds and a few strong tornadoes, are possible across parts of the Southeast Friday through Friday evening. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will proceed Friday across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard, as a vigorous supporting short wave trough pivots northeast of the southern Great Plains. It still appears that the center of the growing cyclone will undergo a period of very rapid deepening across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, perhaps with minimum surface pressures falling in excess of 15 mb in 12 hours, before continuing to deepen while migrating northeastward into the lower Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Associated strengthening of deep-layer wind fields is forecast to include a developing swath of 90-120+ kt southwesterly flow at 500 mb across the lower Mississippi Valley through portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period. In the 850-700 mb layer, 50-90 kt south to southwesterly flow is generally forecast to overspread the inland advancing warm sector. There remains some uncertainty just how expansive of an unstable warm sector may develop, with perhaps low-level warming and moistening becoming sufficient for weak boundary-layer destabilization northeast of the lower Mississippi Valley through parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys during the day. More substantive low-level moistening seems probable off the north central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico, into the eastern Gulf through southern Atlantic Coast states. It appears that this may remain south of the mid-level cold pool, with relatively warm layers aloft, even in advance of mid-level subsidence warming nosing east-northeastward across coastal areas, possibly inhibiting destabilization. However, strong to severe thunderstorm development initiating Thursday night across the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley may spread east/northeast of the Mississippi River Friday morning, before perhaps weakening. Thereafter, it appears that a corridor of stronger surface pressure falls will develop near the Southeastern Piedmont, from Alabama through the Carolinas, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Near the southern periphery of the mid-level height falls, this might become the primary focus for organized storm development. Otherwise, models suggest that a pre-frontal dryline structure may develop across east central/southeastern Alabama during the mid to late afternoon, before surging across central Georgia into the Carolinas by late Friday evening. Although storm mode remains uncertain, there is concern that this environment may support and maintain discrete supercell development with a risk for strong tornadoes. Otherwise, the evolution of at least a small organized cluster might also be possible, accompanied by potential for very strong and damaging convective gusts. ..Kerr.. 01/10/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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