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SPC Jan 10, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the
period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain
net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS.  The lead synoptic trough
-- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending
to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and
Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat.  An
upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery
over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central
Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period.  This
perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to
its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low
levels. 

The most important feature, both for convective potential today and
the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the
Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. 
This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing
OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z
tomorrow.  Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and
marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support
isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still
relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. 
Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/
ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/
middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated
lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection
from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin.

..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024

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