Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 11 Administrators Share Posted January 11 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible tonight over the Arklatex region, and nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and western/northern Louisiana. Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive upper trough digging southeastward toward the Four Corners region. This trough and associated intense mid/upper level jet will move into the southern Plains tonight, aiding in rapid cyclogenesis over OK/TX. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector will transport Gulf moisture northward and result in a corridor of severe thunderstorm activity late tonight. Present indications are that storms will first form in the warm advection regime across parts of AR after dark. These initial storms will be in an environment of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail. Supercell structures will be favored, and dewpoints in the upper 50s might be sufficient for at least a modest risk of a tornado or two. The more robust severe threat is likely to evolve after midnight as the mid-level jet max surges eastward across east TX and atop the warm sector. Storms are expected to form along/ahead of the cold front over northeast TX and track rapidly east-northeastward across the ENH area. The overall synoptic setup for this event would be very impressive and favorable for severe thunderstorms, but low-level moisture is somewhat lacking. Nevertheless, fast-moving supercells and bowing structures are possible early Friday morning as storms trek across parts of AR and northern LA. Widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes are possible - especially if low-level moisture is just slightly greater than currently forecast. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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