Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 MD 0048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST AR...WESTERN TN...EXTREME NORTHWEST MS...MO BOOTHEEL REGION Mesoscale Discussion 0048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Northeast AR...Western TN...Extreme northwest MS...MO Bootheel region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120713Z - 120915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts is expected early this morning. Short-term watch issuance is unlikely, though another round of potentially severe storms is expected later this morning. DISCUSSION...Multiple bowing storm clusters are moving across east-central/northeast AR early this morning, with observed wind gusts in the 40-45 kt (with one 54 kt gust recently noted at KARG in the wake of the line) and potentially large hail noted in MRMS data. These storms are generally northeast of the primary low-level moist axis, and will likely continue to be somewhat elevated as they move east-northeastward toward western TN and the MO Bootheel region. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates and strong deep-layer flow/shear (as noted in the 06Z LZK sounding and regional VWPs) in advance of a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to support organized convection early this morning, with some threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. Given the somewhat elevated nature of the ongoing storms and a likely tendency for this convection to move out of the primary instability axis, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. However, another round of organized convection is expected later this morning, as the upstream shortwave and its attendant strong forcing and powerful flow fields overspread the region. ..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36499058 36728991 36678924 36138923 35628917 34958952 34728977 34558993 34519031 34599059 34689077 34889087 35359086 36499058 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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