Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 MD 0049 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 9... FOR NORTHEAST TX...NORTHWEST LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR Mesoscale Discussion 0049 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...central/southern AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 9... Valid 120841Z - 121015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is expected with time. All severe hazards are possible. New watch issuance is likely before the expiration of Tornado Watch 9. DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing at 0830 UTC from northeast TX into AR, in advance of a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across north TX. Low-level moisture continues to gradually increase across the effective warm sector, with MLCAPE currently in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. As a 100+ kt midlevel jet associated with the approaching shortwave impinges upon the ArkLaTex region, already-favorable deep-layer flow/shear will continue to increase, and increasingly organized/sustained storm structures are expected to evolve through the morning. Discrete cells have struggled to mature in advance of the main convective line thus far, though a couple prefrontal supercells may evolve with time, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Otherwise, the severe-wind threat is expected to increase as the primary convective line accelerates eastward through the morning. Strong low-level flow/shear will support some threat for significant (65+ kt) gusts, as well as some potential for line-embedded tornadoes. With WW 9 scheduled to expire at 4 AM CST and some severe threat likely to spread well downstream, new watch issuance is likely for parts of the MCD area a little later this morning. ..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31199642 32749531 33599457 34789348 35169278 35229186 35189145 34879127 34289147 33499182 32579262 32109340 31749423 31469502 31199642 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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