Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 MD 0052 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR EASTERN AR...NORTHWEST MS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TN...EXTREME NORTHEAST LA Mesoscale Discussion 0052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northwest MS...Extreme southwest TN...Extreme northeast LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 121214Z - 121345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for 70-80 mph winds and a couple tornadoes will continue through sunrise. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving convective line has recently increased in organization across eastern AR, with several mesovortices noted along the leading edge of the line. Shortly after 1130 UTC, 64-kt and 63-kt gusts were noted at Pine Bluff (KPBF) and Stuttgart, AR (KSGT), respectively, as the line moved through those observing sites. Very strong low/midlevel flow in advance of a powerful shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains will continue to support severe-gust potential (with 65+ kt gusts possible) as this convective line moves quickly eastward toward northwest MS and extreme southwest TN. A couple brief line-embedded tornadoes will also be possible. The northward extent of the severe threat will be limited by increasingly cool/stable near-surface conditions, though some severe-gust potential could extend into regions were convection remains somewhat elevated. In advance of the convective line described above, semi-discrete storms have intensified from northeast LA/southeast AR into northwest MS. It remains uncertain regarding whether supercells can mature within the weakly unstable and strongly sheared environment across this region, but very strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on regional VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk with any sustained supercell ahead of the primary convective line this morning. ..Dean.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35409093 35459031 35399001 35038985 34458984 33938989 32779082 32609111 32609161 32619201 32789212 33029209 33169200 33349191 33509187 33879165 34379143 35409093 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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