Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 MD 0053 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS...NORTHEAST LA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TN Mesoscale Discussion 0053 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Areas affected...Central/northern MS...Northeast LA...extreme southwest TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 121355Z - 121530Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and a couple tornadoes will move eastward through mid morning. DISCUSSION...A convective line, which earlier produced measured severe gusts across AR, has shown signs of weakening across far northern MS into western TN, within an increasingly cool and less unstable environment. Farther south, convection has evolved into multiple bands of semi-discrete storms, with occasional stronger midlevel rotation noted with the strongest cells. While storms across TN may continue to outpace stronger moistening/destabilization, storms across central/northern MS will continue will have greater access to richer low-level moisture and modest instability (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). A notable increase in low-level flow has been noted on the KDGX VWP, with 60-80 kt noted in the lowest 1-3 km AGL, so any organized storm structures within this regime will pose a threat for both severe gusts (potentially 65+ kt) and a couple tornadoes. Recent surface observations indicate strong pressure falls associated with a deepening cyclone near the TN/AR border, which may help to sustain organized convection into mid/late morning as it moves northeastward, with some potential for later downstream watch issuance into parts of northwest AL. Some southward expansion of WW 10 may also be needed to account for increasing convection into south-central MS. ..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32159187 33559066 34389016 35139007 35428990 35568948 35358875 35028812 34738793 34068795 33338816 32108892 31778936 31768996 31799051 31829097 31889118 31869144 32159187 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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