Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AL ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into tonight, mainly from Alabama across Georgia and the Carolinas. ...Southeast through tonight... The primary midlevel shortwave trough/jet streak is beginning to turn northeastward over the Mid South, and will continue toward the OH Valley this afternoon. An associated surface cyclone will deepen/consolidate across IN by late afternoon, as a surface cold front surges eastward across MS/AL/GA. It appears the main height falls/forcing for ascent will progress northeastward and away from the narrow surface warm sector that is now confined to southern MS/southwest AL. There will be some northward spread of the warm sector with boundary-layer dewpoints into the 60s across southern AL/GA through the afternoon. However, the lack of strong/deep ascent in the presence of very strong deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates casts doubt on the depth/intensity of any warm sector convection this afternoon. A conditional threat for wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will continue given the very strong vertical shear/long hodographs, but confidence in sustained supercells along the north edge of the surface warm sector is low. Otherwise, slightly elevated convection will be most common today into TN/AL/GA to the north of the remnant cool wedge. A shallow forced band of convection may persist along the surface cold front across the Carolinas into tonight. Very strong vertical shear and intense winds not far above the surface suggest some potential for damaging winds and/or a couple of tornadoes with the line. Still, the relatively weak deeper-layer forcing for ascent (as a result of the main shortwave trough passing northwest of the Carolinas) and the modest thermodynamic profiles both suggest uncertainty in the coverage/magnitude of any severe threat. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/12/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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