Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 2 Administrators Share Posted March 2 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The major change made to this outlook was to expand Elevated highlights into much of the central Plains. Some questions remain regarding how strong the surface winds will become within either the post cold-frontal regime or immediately ahead of the surface trough. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement among guidance members that some increase in sustained winds (i.e. 15+ mph) is likely over parts of the central Plains Sunday afternoon. In addition, prolonged dry conditions across the central Plains suggest that fuels should support rapid wildfire-spread. Furthermore, the latest guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 20-25 percent range by afternoon ahead and immediately behind the cold front as a very dry boundary layer advects northeast from the High Plains over the next 24 hours. If later guidance consensus shows stronger winds/lower RH across the central Plains than what is currently depicted, an upgrade to Critical highlights may be needed by Day 1. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the southern High Plains, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on D2/Sunday, with the primary embedded speed maximum expected to cross the CO Rockies during the afternoon. This will yield lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO/western KS, with an associated tight surface pressure gradient developing across much of the central and southern High Plains. Similar to D1/Saturday, this pattern will favor an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels -- with elevated to critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... In response to the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected across much of the central and southern High Plains. Here, continued downslope warming/drying and deep mixing will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH are expected along the I-25 corridor, though gusts upwards of 60 mph and receptive fuels should compensate for this. While guidance suggests a slight minimum in the strong sustained surface winds over parts of the TX South Plains, low RH and breezy/gusty surface winds should still favor near-critical to critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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