Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted March 10 Administrators Share Posted March 10 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper trough amplification will occur over the West during the middle part of the week, with the likelihood that an upper low will gradually become cut-off over the Southwest Deserts late in the week. Low-level moisture return will continue to occur through Days 4-5 across the southern Plains/Ozarks. For Day 4/Wednesday, at least some risk for severe thunderstorms may exist near the Texas/southern Oklahoma dryline, and perhaps more so, northeastward along the synoptic front across eastern Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley beneath the upper jet exit region. A categorical Slight Risk could be warranted in future outlooks for Wednesday; however, lingering uncertainties regarding moisture return and destabilization preclude a 15% severe risk area at this time. A somewhat higher probability and greater coverage of severe risk is still expected for Day 5/Thursday, especially across central/northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex and southeast Oklahoma. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft are expected atop 60s F surface dewpoints, to the east of the dryline and near/southeast of the southeastward-accelerating synoptic front across the southern Plains to lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks. At least some severe risk will probably expand eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into Day 6/Friday, but predictability is considerably more limited into this time frame, especially given the potential for fairly extensive early-day convection across the region. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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