SPC Apr 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will
be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening.

...Central and Southern Plains...
An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday
morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The
associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90
to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the
trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and
central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist
axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and
40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in
place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms
developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This
convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the
early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. 

As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central
Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to
70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with
strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support
the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited
moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat
marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats.
Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection
moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2024

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