Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 16 Administrators Share Posted May 16 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible across parts of the Gulf Coast States on Friday through Friday night. ...South-central to Southeast States... A messy severe weather setup is expected on Friday into Friday night amid a series of low-amplitude impulses ejecting within and around the positive-tilt, southern-stream shortwave trough across the southern Great Plains. Synoptic surface pattern appears nebulous and likely driven on the mesoscale by several rounds of convection today through the end of D2. Primary changes with this outlook are to expand severe probabilities west and east, while reducing probabilities across the northern portion of the threat area. An MCS or clustered remnants of an early morning one should be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast region. Outflow from this preceding D1 activity will serve as the focus for renewed thunderstorm development later in the day. Most guidance suggests a separate area of upstream convection may be ongoing or will develop by midday across parts of south TX and the TX Gulf Coast along and behind the composite outflow/cold front that will surge southeast in TX on D1. With the fastest mid-level southwesterlies expected to overlie the western to central Gulf Coast during the first half of the period, supercells capable of very large hail will be possible. This threat should be focused in a narrow corridor along the TX Gulf Coast initially, and then develop later in the afternoon to evening in the central Gulf Coast. Some of this latter activity will have relatively greater potential for tornado/wind threats, focused along the outflow in the wake of the early-morning MCS. Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur within the post-frontal/outflow air mass centered on parts of the Red River Valley and in south-central TX near the Rio Grande. This activity will likely be aided by the embedded low-amplitude impulses within the southern-stream shortwave trough. Residual buoyancy should be adequate for an isolated hail/wind threat amid more muted deep-layer shear closer to the trough axis. ...Northern Great Plains... A vigorous, northern-stream shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies into the Prairie Provinces and adjacent parts of MT/ND through early Saturday. Primary surface cyclone will occlude over SK/MB, with secondary cyclogenesis occurring near the SD/WY/MT border area along the trailing Pacific cold front. With only modified moisture return ahead of the front, MLCAPE will remain rather weak. Initial convective development will probably occur within the post-frontal upslope flow regime during the early to mid afternoon. This activity should spread east and likely expand during the late afternoon into the evening. With deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles ahead of the front, and steep lapse rates being maintained behind it, high-based thunderstorms with amalgamating outflows are expected. While the bulk of strong 700-500 mb westerlies will lag behind the front, the strengthening flow should support a threat for strong to isolated severe surface gusts before convection wanes after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/16/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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