Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 23 Administrators Share Posted May 23 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex area. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected. ...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS. Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows. Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear. Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with localized areas of wind damage expected. ...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South... Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail potential. Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass with damaging wind corridors. ..Jewell.. 05/23/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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