Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted May 23 Administrators Share Posted May 23 SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Southwest into southern High Plains - Day 3/Saturday... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the West, a strong (60-70 kt) west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains during peak heating. This will promote a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, with a southward-extending dryline over the southern Plains. West of the dryline, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield widespread 20-25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds across NM and west TX. The combination of these winds and single-digit /lower-teens RH will favor an expansive area of critical fire-weather conditions across the region on Day 3/Saturday, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected well into southeast CO/southwest KS, though fuels do not appear as receptive here. Additionally, pockets of extremely critical meteorological conditions are possible (especially over portions of eastern NM), though these conditions appear too localized for such highlights -- especially given the current state of fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may redevelop across similar areas on Day 4/Sunday, aided by a trailing belt of moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains. However, most guidance indicates a modest surface pressure gradient owing to the weak lee cyclogenesis, limiting confidence in any more than locally critical conditions at this time. Thereafter, a large-scale ridge will build over the West, generally limiting fire-weather concerns for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Weinman.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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