Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 2 Administrators Share Posted June 2 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from much of the Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau and southern Plains on Monday. A more concentrated area of severe thunderstorm risk may become focused across southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex vicinity, where a swath of damaging gusts is possible. ...Synopsis... A somewhat uncertain and conditional severe weather pattern is evident on Monday. Multiple areas of overnight convection are expected in the Day 1/Sunday period. Some of this activity may be ongoing Monday morning across central OK, and portions of the Lower MO and Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity. Through most of the period a low amplitude, quasi-zonal pattern is forecast across the central U.S., though a weak shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will quickly lift northeast into Ontario early on. A couple of MCVs associated with ongoing/remnant convection are forecast. The most likely location for these MCVs are across OK, and the Lower MO Valley. These MCVs will provide mesoscale focus for strong to severe convection into the afternoon/evening. ...Southern Plains/ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley... Most short term guidance has come into agreement regarding thunderstorm development/intensification by early afternoon in association with an MCV tracking east/southeast across OK into the ArkLaTex. The MCV will enhanced vertical shear within a very moist (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) and strongly unstable environment. This should lead to an organized cluster or band of storms, potentially developing upscale into a bowing MCS, capable of mainly severe/damaging gusts and isolated hail. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs and 0-3 km MLCAPE approaching 100 J/kg amid modest 0-1 km SRH suggests a tornado or two also will be possible. The eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain, but storms may persist into evening as convection approaches the Lower MS Valley. Vertical shear will weaken further east, but a very moist and unstable environment will persist. If an organized bow develops, some severe risk may persist into parts of eastern AR, western MS and southeast LA. ...Mid-MS Valley toward Lake Michigan... Another MCV is expected to be located near the Lower MO Valley vicinity Monday morning. Vertical shear is forecast to be weaker compared to further south across the ArkLaTex. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will support strong thunderstorm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. Some guidance develops a weak surface low over WI in response to the exiting upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This may focus a relative max in strong/severe thunderstorm potential in an area of stronger low-level convergence. Given uncertainty, will maintain Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over a broad area, but higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Central TX... A couple of storms may develop near the surface dryline during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain weak, so coverage should remain limited due to capping. However, any storm that develops will encounter a very moist and unstable airmass suitable for supercell development, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. Some guidance suggests an cluster or MCS may cross the Rio Grande from Mexico into south-central TX. If this occurs, strong gusts and hail also may accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 06/02/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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