Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 4 Administrators Share Posted June 4 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO OK...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS...IA AND MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening from the middle Missouri Valley to the upper Mississippi Valley. An ongoing storm cluster near the Arklatex could persist through the day with some damaging-wind threat, and storms will be capable of producing isolated very large hail and severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph this evening into tonight across Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Another in a series of overnight MCSs is moving southeastward near the Arklatex, though the bowing system appears to have weakened prior to sunrise. The MCS is moving into an area overturned yesterday across LA/AR, with the primary moisture/buoyancy feed into the MCS from the south-southwest from the unstable warm sector in TX. There will still be some potential for eventual intensification of the storms as the low levels warm and moisten during the day, and the stronger embedded storms could produce damaging winds. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary, though the outflow is already somewhat diffuse with west/northwestward extent. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK during the day. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon along the west edge of the richer moisture (near the western OK/TX border) where MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/coverage are both in question. If storms form, there will be just enough vertical shear for supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Confidence is greater in renewed thunderstorm development across KS this afternoon and into OK late this evening into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/04/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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