Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted June 6 Administrators Share Posted June 6 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0714 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible this afternoon/evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from eastern New York into the Carolinas, and isolated wind damage/hail may also occur across the central/east central Florida peninsula. ...TX Panhandle/western OK this afternoon/evening... In the wake of a midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, a weak surface cold front will drift southward from KS into northern OK and the TX/OK Panhandles by later this afternoon/evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM will induce southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection across TX/OK to the south of the front. Strong surface heating and the increase in low-level moisture will contribute to moderate buoyancy by mid-late afternoon (MLCAPE >1500 J/kg), in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates/deep mixing. Low-level convergence/ascent along the front should focus thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon from northwest OK into the TX Panhandle, and storms will subsequently spread southward through the evening. Moderate buoyancy, inverted-V profiles and northwesterly effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will favor a mix of multicell clusters and high-based supercells capable of producing severe outflow gusts (mainly 60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1-1.5 inch diameter). ...East central FL this afternoon... The Atlantic coast sea breeze will likely be favored this afternoon for thunderstorm development, within a weak background westerly flow regime. Strong surface heating across the central peninsula, boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s, and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will result in MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Seasonally cool midlevel temperatures (-8 to -10 C at 500 mb) and the large buoyancy will support some threat for isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) where vertical shear is slightly enhanced by the sea breeze. The large buoyancy will also result in substantial water-loaded downdrafts with the potential for isolated wind damage (55-65 mph gusts) in an environment with steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg. ...NY into the Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A pronounced midlevel trough will progress eastward from the Great Lakes to NY/PA by this evening, and it will be accompanied by a surface cold front and pre-frontal trough in the lee of the higher terrain. Midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector will not be steep, but surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early-mid afternoon, when storm development is expected along the surface boundaries. There will be some increase in midlevel flow over the surface warm sector this afternoon (30+ kt flow near 500 mb), which will favor primarily multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage (50-60 mph gusts). Somewhat greater storm coverage is expected in the vicinity of eastern NY where forcing for ascent will be more focused, with more scattered storms farther south into the Carolinas. Despite weaker deep-layer vertical shear with southward extent toward the Carolinas, modest enhancement of flow in the 700-500 mb layer (30+ kt) and steep low-level lapse rates will support isolated downbursts with wind damage. Portions of this area will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for higher wind probabilities, primarily for sufficient cloud breaks and resultant destabilization. ..Thompson/Grams.. 06/06/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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