Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted July 25 Administrators Share Posted July 25 MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA Mesoscale Discussion 1707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern into North-Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252025Z - 252300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few clusters of storms should emerge by late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show persistent cumulus development in high terrain areas of southwestern into north-central Montana, with a few echoes now appearing on regional radar. This activity is developing in proximity to a cold front moving through the region, where surface heating and ample low-level moisture has allowed for destabilization coincident with upper-level forcing for ascent along the southern periphery of a mid-level trough. These factors are yielding MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Strong flow associated with the trough is also yielding a broad region of deep-layer shear overspreading the area, with effective bulk shear values of 30-40 kt. The convective trends noted above are expected to continue. The early convection, mainly over southwest Montana presently, is expected to move northeast and expand in coverage, resulting in scattered thunderstorms within a southwest to northeast oriented corridor over central Montana by late afternoon/early evening. A few clusters of storms may emerge with time. Strong low-level lapse rates (> 9 C/km) across the region and the aforementioned enhanced flow aloft should allow for strong to severe outflow winds, particularly with any clusters of storms that develop. Given this potential, watch issuance is possible for the region and convective trends will be monitored. ..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45490937 45021010 45091084 45671139 46561149 47451073 48280998 49110903 49100691 46840821 45490937 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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