Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 13 Administrators Share Posted August 13 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging over the southern tier of the CONUS should be suppressed by a slow moving upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Friday. Moderate to locally strong instability should once again be in place along/ahead of a weak front. Sufficient mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should exist to support at least an isolated severe threat across parts of the OH Valley/Midwest into the mid MS Valley and southern/central Plains. However, the presence of prior convection and only weak low-level convergence along the front lend low confidence in delineating a corridor of greater severe potential across these regions Friday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area at this time. For this weekend into early next week, an upper low should develop and remain over the eastern Pacific, off the Northwest Coast. Upper ridging is forecast to build over much of the West and Rockies/Plains, with upper troughing persisting over the eastern states. Some severe threat may continue each day across parts of the Plains into the Southeast and eastern states, along and south/east of a weak front. But, the overall synoptic pattern suggests limited predictability in highlighting focused areas of greater severe potential. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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