SPC MD 2155

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2155 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 2155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Areas affected...parts of western into central Kansas and adjacent
southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 211859Z - 212100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development
appears increasingly possible by 3-5 PM CDT.  The stronger storms
will probably pose the risk for severe hail, but a brief tornado or
two may also be possible.  It is not certain this will require a
severe weather watch, but trends are being monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...The southwestern flank of relatively cool
boundary-layer air stabilized by convective precipitation is
gradually eroding, roughly from the McCook and Hill City vicinities
south-southeastward toward Medicine Lodge.  Along and to the
immediate west, a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer moisture
(characterized by mid/upper 50s F surface dew points) is being
maintained long enough to contribute to CAPE on the order of 500 to
1000 J/kg, as the leading edge of the compact mid-level cold core
continues to shift across/east of the central high plains.

Attempts at deepening convective development are ongoing within this
corridor of destabilization, most notably to the west-southwest and
southwest of Hill City.  It appears the corridor of stronger
destabilization will continue to develop slowly northeastward and
eastward through the remainder of the afternoon.  As this occurs, it
probably will become increasingly supportive of thunderstorm
initiation through the 20-22Z time frame.  In the presence of
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear, beneath 40 kt southerly
850 mb flow veering to 50-60 kt southwesterly at 500 mb, the
environment appears conducive to the development of a couple of
supercells.  Large hail appears the primary potential severe hazard,
but low-level hodographs might be conducive to a brief tornado or
two.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 10/21/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40270079 39959901 38909877 38119830 37299863 37139954
            37909997 38460022 39200110 40270079 

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