Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted 16 hours ago Administrators Share Posted 16 hours ago SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.