Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted Tuesday at 06:03 AM Administrators Share Posted Tuesday at 06:03 AM SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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